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The relationship between Washington and New Delhi has been one of the post–Cold War era’s most notable success stories, maturing into what was considered to be one of the strongest strategic partnerships over the past two decades. But now, that goodwill is under severe strain as relations between the two longtime allies fall to one of their lowest points in recent years, experts have said.

“The U.S.-India relationship is at a nadir because of a convergence of issues where trust has broken down between the two countries,” Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told CNBC. “We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years — that everybody worked very hard to build, including the president in his first term — have just come completely unraveled. The trust is gone.”

The relationship has come under considerable strain after the Trump administration imposed heavy tariffs on India earlier this year over New Delhi’s decision to continue buying Russian oil and gas. The tariffs, which began at 25 percent, are set to increase to 50 percent from Aug. 27. Rather than signaling to India that it needed to diversify its energy needs, the decision has pushed New Delhi closer to Moscow — and in some analysts’ views even Beijing.

In recent weeks, India’s national security adviser visited Moscow, while Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar was also in Russia for high-level meetings. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also just finished a visit to New Delhi. Modi, who has not traveled to China since 2014, is now set to make his first visit to Beijing in more than seven years. He is also expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow before the end of the year, having visited the Russian leader in India in December 2022.

“The two sides have put forward some significant initiatives on expanding our ties in key areas like trade and investment, strategic cooperation and cultural exchanges, as well as sending a positive signal to the international community that India and Russia are taking their ties to a new height,” said Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, as quoted by Reuters.

Feigenbaum, for his part, warned that “they’re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy, and they are not going to put up with it.” He added that “the domestic politics on that issue in India is more consequential than some of the optics” over New Delhi’s visits to Moscow and Beijing.

India has also shown some hesitation in completely cutting off Russian imports even at the outset of the war in Ukraine. Refineries in India were expecting the potential for discounts of 6% to 7%, reversing an initial halt in imports of Russian oil after the conflict began. As a result, Russia now provides a staggering 35% of India’s imported crude, up from 0.2% before the war, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

In a statement following a meeting with Modi, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said Moscow will continue to ship “crude oil, oil products, thermal and coking coal” to India. “We see potential for the export of Russian LNG as well,” he added.

India was already working to diversify away from Russian military hardware before the Ukraine war, with the New Delhi government also placing orders for U.S., French, and Israeli arms, for example. But once the war began, trade between India and Russia in energy increased, experts say. “It’s been sort of a validation of this idea that ‘the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can — because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what,’” South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center told CNBC.

For his part, Modi has been able to use the opportunity to burnish his image as a protector of sovereignty back home. Modi has said he is focused on securing the livelihoods of farmers, small businesses, and young workers in India — and there’s a political reason for that, too, analysts say.

“We just remember very vividly in India, they have given some big asks from the United States. For example, on reducing tariffs, on repatriation of H1-B workers,” Kugelman said. “Because of those concessions, India needs to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend. This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down.”

Mounting Frustration in the U.S.

In the U.S., there has been a visible level of frustration. Navarro, the former White House trade adviser, wrote in the Financial Times on Thursday that India’s energy purchases from Moscow have been “opportunistic” and “deeply corrosive.” He added that the Trump administration was “right to target the energy trade with tariffs to penalize New Delhi where it hurts — its access to U.S. markets — even as it seeks to cut off the financial lifeline it has extended to Russia’s war effort.”

The Trump administration’s tariff decision this summer has led to one of the more noticeable breakdowns in U.S.-India relations, but they were not the sole reason why New Delhi was looking east, Kugelman pointed out. “We’ve seen indications for almost a year of India wanting to ease tensions with China and strengthen relations, mainly for economic reasons. But the Trump administration’s policies have made India want to move even more quickly,” he said.

The changes in policy by New Delhi may be diplomatic theater, Feigenbaum said, but “there are going to be some parts of this that are very substantive, particularly India doubling down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia — and those parts are not performative.”